โดยกรมส่งเสริมคุณภาพสิ่งแวดล้อม

Climate change scenarios and future risk in 2050

Department of Environmetal Qulity Promotion

Department of Environmetal Qulity Promotion

Climate change scenarios and future risk in 2050

limate change is a key driver of changes in social, economic and environmental aspect, which are hard to handle. Many international and national organizations have been studying and understanding the mechanism and impacts of climate change, resulting in new establishments for dealing with climate change. However, it is still difficult to describe or anticipate the climate change situations due to the state of socio-economic and environment. Therefore, it is important to develop climate change forecast system with the comprehensive consideration of all possibilities in order to deliver solutions for every circumstance.

 

In order to foresee the possible scenarios, the representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) developed to describe pathways of GHG emissions, atmospheric concentration, etc. of the 21 century. IPCC AR5 reported that the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts depends on the magnitudes of warming. The risks of climate change in global will be high when the global mean temperature reach 4oC above preindustrial levels. The key risks and potential risk reduction for each region show in Figure 1. Hence, the limiting the rate and magnitude of climate change can reduce the overall risks. As a result, it reduces the scale of required adaptation. Yet, some risk from adverse impacts remains (IPCC, 2014).

Representative key risks for each region, including the potential for risk reduction through adaptation and mitigation; Source: IPCC (2014) ; Modified by: ERM-Siam Co., Ltd.

The climate-related risks occur on the overlap of three factors: the hazard, the exposure and the vulnerability (Figure 2 ). Hazard is impacts of climate change or the extreme events. The exposure considers the assets at risk on economic value, e.g. properties and investment. The vulnerability is the sensitivity to harm or the potential to be harm for people in the ecosystem which they possibly damage from the climate change. To manage the risk, adaptation is not just about the future management plan. It is about how people, community and government look at the emerging risks in relation to the existing risks, in return, it affects the short and long-term choices that community or government made under these uncertainties.


Figure 2: The core concepts of the WGII AR5.

Source: IPCC (2014) http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/images/uploads/WG2AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf/ Modified by: ERM-Siam Co., Ltd.

The adaptation and mitigation are complementary activities. The benefits of these two types of measure play out at the different time scales. The benefit of adaptation is intermediate or near term. On the other hand, the early adoption of mitigation can facilitate the effective adaptation in future.

The adaptation measure has been implemented around the world. For example, built up flood barriers in many big cities which located in the mega-deltas, water recycling and green roofs and walls (Climate-ADAPT, 2013). Thailand, too, has started to facilitate the adaptation.

 

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